Metcalfe's law state that the value of a communications network is proportional to the square of the number of its users.
Remember that the number of HEX holders and HEX stakers are also themselves functions of time.
So, mathematically, we can say:
Value ~ c(users)^2
where c is some constant,
and we can define the number of users as some function of time such as:
Users = HEX holders over time: h(t)
Users - HEX stakers over time: s(t)
The first chart below plots these two functions for HEX, h(t) and s(t), against the historical chart of Ethereum's adoption (ETH holders over time). Given HEX's general overperformance vs. ETH on many metrics and across many timescales, one can perhaps take this as a fair or conservative model to the potential of HEX value appreciation via network effects.
The second chart below plots the first derivative (a.k.a. rate of change; slope; velocity) of HEX stakers over time
How To Use
Long term HEX investors can monitor the HEX adoption rate over time. Historically, we've seen that after Big Pay Day (11/19/20), the stock to flow ratio of HEX has remained between 27 and high as over 100.
Gerardo - @gerawrdog